The Republicans Have the Advantage in Florida and the Hispanic Vote
by Diane Scherff
Just five days to the 2020 General Election and the two Presidential candidates crosspaths in a major Florida city today as polls have them neck and neck. That being said (or written), how effective are the pollsters’ strategies today since previous election results have shown their data irresolute. Remember, the polls had Hillary Clinton a “sure bet” in 2016.
Regardless of the polls, the interesting highlight less than a week to go is two-fold; 1) since registered Republican voters have narrowed the gap over Democrats in Florida, we are seeing close voter turnouts for both parties and 2) due to the increased progressive push in the Democrat Party, the Hispanic vote may double for Trump in 2020.
Florida has over 14.4 million registered voters and as of today, approximately 7.4 million have already cast their vote for Tuesday’s election…over a 50% turnout. In 2016, Democrats had 327,000 more registered voters in the state than Republicans, yet going into Tuesday’s election, the number is only 134,000…less than half. Currently, 2.7 million Republicans have voted, either by early voting or mail-in, and 2.9 million Democrats have cast their votes, with an additional 1.6 million NPAs (Non party affiliation) and “Other” voters adding to the total.
My guess is that Republicans are actually leading now and will conquer in the state on election day with many of the NPA/Other votes going for Trump, (the shameful RINO votes for Biden should negate the Walkaway Dems for Trump) and a high percentage of Republicans voting on election day versus the COVID-frightened Democrats who stay home. Another reason Republicans are up, in my humble opinion, is that Hispanics, who now make up almost 20% of Florida voters, are mostly for President Trump and plan to vote in higher numbers in this election.
Joe Biden seems to be trailing Hillary Clinton’s 2016 numbers with Hispanics by at least 10 points and that may be due to the fact that most Hispanics don’t agree with the far left progressive ideals associated with the Democrat party going into this election. In an article written by Rev. Samuel Rodriguez on FoxNews.com, he explains today’s Democratic Party is ‘completely unrecognizable from the party many Latinos supported in 2008 and 2012.’ Rev. Rodriguez states, “the 2020 (Democrat) party’s vision of America risks not reflecting the beliefs or values that drew our immigrant ancestors to this great nation.”
For instance, Latinos have been traditionally moderate, but now leaning more conservative putting family first. They want to be safe and do not want to defund the police. Hispanics believe education is the most important aspect of living the American dream and want school choice. The Latino community has a strong Faith in God and is the ‘most pro-life community in the American electorate,’ according to Pew Research, so the Biden/Harris ticket’s promotion of late-term abortion will not give them a vote. Furthermore, the hostile criticism of Justice Amy Coney Barrett’s religious beliefs offended some Latinos according to the Reverend. “Most recently, the Democrats’ hostile grilling of Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett’s personal religious beliefs about the sanctity of human life during her recent confirmation hearings was off-putting for many Latinos,” he writes. Which also tugs at their freedom of religion.
In speaking with several Hispanics, it appears that Latinos aren’t necessarily registered Democrat or Republican but base their vote on their values…family, faith, jobs, security and education. As one reader commented, “we want a great economy, proper schooling, strong public security, lessened government interference, and the right to worship God as we see fit.”
For that reason alone, President Trump will get a high percentage of the Latino vote in Florida, pushing him over the edge once again to win all 29 electorates. I know of at least one electorate vote that is going for President Trump. Mine.
A Second Term Trump Foreign and National Security Policy
by Robert Blau
Let’s fast forward to the day after President Trump is reelected, leaving aside whether or not Joe Biden concedes or if there is any unrest because of a disputed result. What can we expect from a second Trump Administration in international affairs?
Overall, the President’s “America First” approach and leery attitude towards involvement in foreign conflicts that do not involve direct U.S. interests will likely keep the Administration’s focus on trade and business relationships that produce tangible benefits to the U.S. economy. The one area where we may see a foreign policy breakthrough is the Mideast: The President himself has been saying that he expects an early call from Iran, which will reflect that country’s disappointment that Biden didn’t win and need to make a serious deal with us to enable the United States to consider lifting sanctions. Trump Administration first-term policies have put Iran in a terrible bind: Its paramilitary terror commander is dead, its oil revenue is down because of low world prices, and its finances are crippled by U.S. sanctions. Also, most Arab countries are turning their back to Iran and radicalism and instead finding ways to upgrade their relations with Israel. Sudan joined the peace club (UAE and Bahrain so far) this week, part of a breakthrough trend that can be expected to accelerate in a second Trump Administration, reaching enough critical mass to eventually put pressure on the Palestinians to see the wisdom in the Trump team’s peace plan with Israel. Where is that Nobel Prize?
Europe: Most of the countries will begin 2021 thoroughly beaten down by COVID, so our focus will probably be on maintaining existing alliance relationships, with a wary eye on Turkey as a rogue NATO member. President Trump can be expected to push for a post-Brexit trade deal with the UK, which will require support from Congress. Additionally, the U.S. will also need to keep an eye on European resistance to pressure from Russia (oil/gas supplies and pipelines) and China (Huawei and 5G), which could tend to compromise their own security.
Far East: Like Iran, China will be disappointed that Biden didn’t win, as it already had the Bidens in their pocket as a result of Hunter’s sweetheart deals. China will have benefitted in having weakened the USA with the spread of COVID, but that will be short-lived once vaccines and improved remedies become widely available. At the same time, our other relationships in Asia will be strengthened in reaction to China’s COVID and other predatory behavior. Renewed U.S. military cooperation with India takes on a heightened importance after India’s military pushback against Chinese border provocations. President Trump will continue to sell weapons to Taiwan, as it too is subject to Chicom threats and provocations in the short to medium term. While all this is going on, plus defense against China in our space and cyberspace domains, we can expect a cold compliance with existing trade agreements with China. Meanwhile, American companies are likely to find that incentives to move supply chains out of China will cause many of them to take their business elsewhere. I don’t expect President Trump to take any more risks with Kim Jong Un, nor do I expect the NorK leader to go beyond his usual saber rattling into anything dangerous.
Russia: Even though Joe Biden tried (lamely) to blame the Russians for the contents of Hunter’s “laptop from hell,” it is not likely that Democrats will make much headway trying to blame their 2020 defeat on the Russians. That was a gambit meant to prevent President Trump’s election in 2016, hamper his first term, and cause him to lose reelection, all of which harmed the country more than it harmed Donald Trump. Not to mention that it was conclusively disproven. Russia, like Iran, will be disappointed that Biden lost, and weakened by robust U.S. energy production and the lower worldwide price of oil.
Western Hemisphere: Our border wall and better overall Immigration enforcement will slow to manageable levels the rate of illegal immigration from Mexican territory. Meanwhile, Mexico itself, Canada and the USA will all share in beneficial trade relations as the USMCA makes itself a part of economic expansion in the wake of post-COVID recovery. It’s always hard to predict the implosion of Cuba and Venezuela, even though both, disappointed that Biden didn’t win, will continue to struggle as the latter finds it more and more difficult to subsidize the former. The recent upgrade of our trade agreement with Brazil underscores the Trump Administration’s bread-and-butter priority areas in foreign relations.
Global Issues: Terrorism would fall under the category of peace through strength, continuing to make it clear that we will go after terrorist leaders should successors to ISIS’s Al-Baghdadi and/or Iran’s Soleimani appear on the world stage. President Trump’s priorities for American economic growth and energy independence will continue to capture a higher priority position than climate change; the Paris Accords were not going to make the air or water much cleaner while giant countries like China and India were not held to the same standards as the USA, Japan or Europe. Foreign assistance to poor countries, which is only a minuscule portion of the U.S. budget (far less than one percent), is likely to stay the same or even shrink, not because that spending doesn’t advance U.S. interests, but rather because it becomes harder to defend foreign aid while the USA is so deeply in debt, which was worsened by COVID.