by Diane Scherff
As we all remember, in the Presidential election held on November 8th, 2016, then Donald Trump won the Electoral College by 306 Electoral Votes (EVs), to Hillary Clinton’s 232 EVs. What if President Trump can pull off an even greater shock and win by a landslide…yes, it could happen.
Clinton won big in 18 states and D.C. which are traditional Democrat strongholds that are densely populated and along the coasts yet won two states by less than a 2% margin; NH and MN. President Trump won convincingly in 26 mostly Republican states yet won four states by a sliver…1.2% or less: Florida (29 EVs), Pennsylvania (20 EVs), Wisconsin (10 EVs) and Michigan (16 EVs). According to the Washington Post, “the four states won by Trump were all won by Obama in 2012. Pennsylvania and Michigan had not voted for a Republican president since voting for George H.W. Bush in 1988. Wisconsin had not gone Republican since 1984.”
These are once again key states for President Trump, but he could potentially take a few new ones.
On a call with the Trump Campaign this week, the Trump Campaign’s Director of Battleground Strategy detailed various electoral vote scenarios that give President Trump a win on November 3rd. Calling his strategy “Pathway to Victory,” Nick Trainer detailed his six possible outcomes which have the President garnering the minimum EVs needed at 270 all the way up to 356 EVs giving President Trump a landslide victory!
The landslide option he explained gives President Trump 356 EVs winning 37 states and Biden winning 182 EVs taking 14 states. In this scenario, President Trump would win; AZ, CO, FL, GA, Maine, MI, MN, NH, NC, PA and WI as the key states. Although Trump unexpectedly won Michigan in the 2016 election, it was by a narrow margin of 0.23%. President Trump is focussing his campaign efforts there visiting MI several times and the polls now have him ahead there.
In 2016, Trump did well in rural counties across the country, which made a huge difference in states like, WI, PA and MN. In 2012, Mitt Romney lost WI by 213,019 votes and Trump won it by 22,390 in 2016. My team in NE FL stayed well after our polls had closed to make calls to WI voters and it paid off. Further research shows that Trump won WI by winning all the smallest counties, as well as in PA where Romney also lost but Trump won by 44,292 votes. PA is also reporting an increase in Republican voter registrations going into this election over 2012, with an increase of 160,000 new voters in the state.
The last time a Republican won MN was with Richard Nixon in 1972, yet Clinton only won MN by a 1.5% margin (or 44K votes). Barack Obama won MN in 2012 by 7.7%. Trump won almost 300,000 votes in 85 counties whereas Romney only won 56,000. The trend is heading toward the conservative side which makes MN a real possibility for a Trump win, giving him 10 electoral votes in 2020.
Florida was a close call and an important win for Trump in 2016. As his Campaign Chair for St Johns County, I felt confident he had Florida and even told him so weeks earlier at a rally in Jacksonville. My strategy was to continue calling the panhandle after our polls closed since they are one hour earlier. Several volunteers helped me call hundreds of voters from Panama City to Pensacola begging them to get to the polls. Ironically, many thought Clinton had already won FL but acquiesced. Clinton did win urban areas in Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties to our South in huge numbers, but Trump dominated in every other corner of the state and outperformed past Republican candidates with older, white and blue collar voters taking FL with a 1.5% margin and 44,765 voters.
What is the prediction for FL and the other key states this election? I say Trump takes FL and wins by a larger margin than in 2016 taking in at least 320 EVs! Now let’s get to work!
PRESIDENT TRUMP DESERVES THE NOBEL PEACE PRIZE
by Robert Blau
It is a great honor for President Trump to have been nominated (twice) for the Nobel Peace Prize, which is awarded to people who have… “done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses.” Just in the past month the President has announced the establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, the same for Israel and Bahrain, and a commercial agreement between Kosovo and Serbia. The Trump Administration brokered all three negotiations, any one of which should be considered a breakthrough. The last time an Arab nation (Jordan) made peace with Israel was in 1994, and since Kosovo and Serbia went to war from 1998-1999, the predominant news story involving those countries has been ethnic strife between Kosovars and Serbs.
What is so striking about all these deals is that they completely shatter many media and Democratic party narratives about President Trump and about American foreign policy in general. In no particular order:
- “Moving the American Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem was a mistake and would inflame the Arab world.” Obviously, the UAE and Bahrain are not inflamed, nor are the majority of members of the Arab League who rejected a Palestinian initiative to denounce these deals.
- The corollary to the above is “Solving the Israel/Palestinian dispute is the prerequisite for any or all other peace initiatives in the Middle East.” I guess not.
- “President Trump is anti-Muslim. “ Remember how the Administration’s 2017 travel ban from countries that export terrorism was incorrectly labelled a “Muslim ban.” The UAE, Bahrain and Kosovo are all Muslim-majority countries. The President gets along fine with Muslims, which is very different from his saying that the U.S. will deal firmly with threats from radical Islamic terrorists.
- “The America-First foreign policy is isolationist.” Isolationists don’t broker breakthrough negotiations and peace deals; statesmen do that kind of thing.
The Davos set and international politically correct pundits will all cringe at the idea of President Trump and “statesman” being used in the same sentence, or even worse, his winning the Nobel Prize, which of course, hasn’t happened yet. But there is no denying that these recent peace deals are a major substantive achievement, at least as worthy as the accomplishments of other Nobel Peace Prize Laureates. For example, among the American winners:
- President Obama won in 2009 before he had even completed nine months in office. He was essentially awarded the prize for being the first African American President of the United States. That was certainly an accomplishment, but not really consistent with Nobel Prize criteria.
- Former Vice President Al Gore (2007) for his advocacy on behalf of policies to deal with climate change.
- Former President Jimmy Carter (2002) for his lifelong advocacy for human rights and peaceful resolution of international disputes.
- Henry Kissinger (1973), for his role in negotiating a cease-fire in Vietnam and withdrawal of American troops.
- Martin Luther King Jr., (1964) for his leadership of the non-violent civil rights movement.
- George Marshall (1953), the former Secretary of Defense and State won the prize for his honchoing the recovery plan for post-war Europe that bears his name.
- Woodrow Wilson (1919) for his role in establishing the League of Nations (which the U.S. did not join because Wilson could not obtain Senate ratification).
Additionally, Shimon Peres, Yitzchak Rabin and Yasser Arafat together won the Nobel Prize in 1994 for having signed the Oslo Accords. That was the most recent occasion for Middle East peacemaking to be the subject of the Nobel Committee consideration. At the time it seemed to make sense, even if it required some effort to look at Arafat as something other than a terrorist. Since then, the Oslo accords completely unraveled.
So, by even a cursory comparison, President Trump deserves the award for his role in making three peace deals, two of which in the Middle East. Additionally, he has reduced the footprint of American deployments overseas, made a good-faith effort to find common ground with the North Korean dictator, and committed the U.S. to avoid getting involved in prolonged and/or unnecessary wars.
FROM THE WHITE HOUSE
NEW: Incomes hit record high and poverty reached record low in 2019
American households saw their best economic gains in half a century last year under President Trump, according to a report this week from the Census Bureau.
And with the President’s pro-growth, pro-worker policies in action, this standard can be achieved again as America safely reopens from the Coronavirus pandemic.
Median household income grew by a stunning $4,400 in 2019, resulting in an all-time record of $68,700. This 6.8 percent one-year increase is the largest gain on record for median income growth.
The poverty rate plunged to an all-time low of 10.5 percent, as well. Between 2018 and 2019 alone, over 4 million Americans were lifted out of poverty, and the child poverty rate fell to a nearly 50-year low in 2019.
Minority groups including African Americans, Hispanic Americans, and Asian Americans saw the largest gains in income, while poverty rates fell to a record low for every race and ethnic group in 2019.
Black Americans, for example, saw a 7.9 percent median income increase and a poverty rate that fell below 20 percent for the first time in history.
The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted this historic progress in 2020. Nevertheless, America today is witnessing the fastest recovery from any economic crisis in history. Thanks to the strong fundamentals of the Trump Economy, the monthly jobs report has met or exceeded economist expectations for four months in a row.
The new Census report confirms what we know to be true: With the right agenda for blue-collar and middle-class workers, there’s no limit to America’s economic greatness!
? Incomes Hit Record High and Poverty Reached Record Low in 2019
WE HAVE RAISED $42,000 and the Trump Campaign raised over $210 million in August!
Visit our HOME PAGE to donate directly to the TRUMP VICTORY CAMPAIGN. When you do, Trump Club of St Johns County will receive credit for your donation!!!
Trump Grassroots Team Florida Cultivates 2016 Trump Campaign Leaders
As the 2016 SJC Trump Campaign Chair, I was asked to participate in a new grassroots group added to help President Trump win in Florida. Our team of 2016 leaders and volunteers will help the local RPOF/REC teams get the job accomplished. Here are a couple of points:
- National Polls now have Trump and Biden tied in FL!
- Due to COVID, President Trump will be holding smaller group events in the state
- We have launched the largest Poll Watching Operation in Campaign history. We will need to train over 10,000 poll watchers in FL for Early Voting and Election Day.
- We also need a team of volunteers to call absentee voters who have unmatched signatures, wrong information, etc so they can be corrected and counted.
- We will be getting materials directly from this group ie; Palm cards, signs, etc
In order to make sure everyone that wants to volunteer to be a poll watcher is correctly trained, certified, and scheduled, the campaign has created a sign up site at DefendYourBallot.com and this site will make sure all of the legal entities have the information. For more information, visit the Upcoming Events section of our Home Page. Click on the link Volunteer Poll Watchers Needed. Become part of the ELECTION DAY TEAM.
St Johns County Voter Registration Totals
PRESIDENT TRUMP and BIDEN ARE TIED FOR FLORIDA
According to a new NBC News-Marist Poll out this week, President Trump and Joe Biden are tied in Florida, with the president holding a narrow edge among Latino voters.
The survey has Trump and Biden tied at 48 percent among likely voters yet when the polling data is expanded to include all registered voters, Trump leads 48 to 47 percent. Trump carried Florida by just over 1 point in 2016 and the Sunshine State is a key piece to his reelection strategy. Biden’s lead in Florida in the RealClearPolitics average is now at 1.4 points, down from his high of 8.4 points in late July.
Among Latino voters, Trump leads 50 percent to 46 percent, a marked shift from 2016, when Hillary Clinton outpaced Trump by more than 25 points among Florida Latinos.
KEEP UP THE GREAT WORK! WE ARE GOING TO WIN!
We must show our support for REPUBLICANS running for Congress in Florida !
Click on the link below to see all the congressional races in Florida.
Women for Trump Bus Tour in St Augustine
The Trump Campaign’s Director of Events added St Augustine to their Bus Tour through Florida on Wednesday, September 16th.
Lara Trump, Pam Bondi and Katrina Pierson spoke to a crowd of about 40 women (and a few men:)
Thank you, Stephen Strang, Author for speaking at the Trump Club of SJC Meeting on September 14th.
BUY HIS BOOKS!!!!
Stephen E. Strang is the best-selling author of God and Donald Trump, which was brandished by the president at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in 2018. The founder and CEO of Charisma Media, Strang was voted by Time magazine as one of the 25 most influential Evangelicals in America.